At 8 p.m. Eastern, the top eleven candidates for the Republican nomination for the presidency will take the stage at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, to embarrass themselves, their loved ones, and the country they hope to lead as they vie for a chance to run this great nation into the ground. Again.

Not too much has changed since round one; a few candidates have switched places in the polls, and Carly Fiorina conned her way onto the stage, but the hot button topic is, as always, white angst. We’ll be liveblogging the actual debate later tonight, but for now, here’s your rundown of tonight’s key players.

It’s going to be a long year.

Donald Trump

What’s changed

Shockingly, not much. Donald Trump is still the clear lead, polling at about 30 percent.

What to expect

More of the same. Which is to say: Racism, some incoherent yelling, (badly) dodging questions about his familiarity with the primary religious texts of the Christian faith, and a few uncomfortable comments on his smokin’ hot daughter.

Can he win?

God help us.

Jeb Bush

What’s changed

Jeb Bush, who enjoyed initially enjoyed short-lived spot as GOP frontrunner, has not yet succumbed to the temptation to go full-on fire-breathing Tea Party right-wing nut job for attention. Which is why no one gives a shit about him.

What to expect

Jeb will be trying to prove that he’s “tough,” which probably means that he will be acting peevish and annoyed. It’s the Bush way.

Can he win?

As long as he can count on a nigh-unlimited source of funds — that is, as long as he’s a Bush — you can’t count him out.

Scott Walker

What’s changed

Scott Walker started off the race as an everyone’s everyman and a trendy pick, what with his distaste for both unions and livable minimum wages. But then he called building a wall between the US and Canada a “legitimate” idea, and everyone started to remember that Scott Walker is, for all intents and purposes, an idiot.

What to expect

A lot more of what got people behind Walker in the first place—attacking unions. In light of his low polling, he’s also started lashing out at other candidates, which he’d refused to do in the past. So tonight, Walker should be feeling feisty.

Can he win?

Nah.

Ben Carson

What’s changed

In the first debate, Carson had a loyal but tiny following. Now, he’s managed to build some awareness and spout off a few absurd, hyperbolic attacks on Planned Parenthood in the process. Naturally, his poll numbers are spiking.

What to expect

Carson will be the smartest man on the stage saying the stupidest things. His biggest advantage is being the steadfast, sober foil to Donald Trump’s drunken mob boss.

Can he win?

Nah.

Ted Cruz

What’s changed

Tec Cruz has become perfectly comfortable with his spot in Trump’s shadow. Now, he’s just biding his time on the off-chance that Trump finally implodes.

What to expect

Since Trump and Cruz have the same constituency, he can’t actually make any attacks on Trump or he’ll piss off those voters—not to mention kill any chance of a potential Vice Presidential bid with the Donald. Cruz will likely be sitting quietly and backing up the screaming orange man as needed.

Can he win?

If everyone else absolutely destroys their own prospects in an effort to destroy Trump (which, at this point, is not entirely unlikely), then maybe.

Marco Rubio

What’s changed

Unfortunately for Marco Rubio, nothing.

What to expect

Rubio’s been sitting squarely in the middle of the polls, largely because he has been far too boring on all accounts. He might try to liven things up a bit by starting a few fights. More likely, though, is that he will play the polite card, and come Thursday, no one will remember that he was even there.

Can he win?

He has not said nearly enough racist things about immigrants, so no. No he can not.

Mike Huckabee

What’s changed

Huckabee is in the same boat as his ever-so-slightly more liked friend Marco Rubio. And that boat is on dead, stagnant water.

What to expect

In light of Trump’s fumbles with religion, Huckabee might try to lean on the fact that he’s a genuine former Baptist minister, and the former darling of the evangelical wing of the party.

Can he win?

No, but he can slap a mean bass.

Rand Paul

What’s changed

Paul has consistently been polling near the bottom of the pack, but he has at least found a solid constituency in the freshmen philosophy majors of the world.

What to expect

He’ll probably yell at Chris Christie some more. He’ll probably yell at Donald Trump some more. And he’ll probably say a few not-horrible things that no one will care about because, look, Donald Trump.

Can he win?

Frat bros are not reliable voters, so no.

John Kasich

What’s changed

A few more people know who John Kasich is.

What to expect

Very few questions will be asked him, almost none of which will be memorable.

Can he win?

John Kasich would actually be a genuinely difficult person for a Democrat to beat. But unfortunately for Kasich, he is far too moderate to win a Republican primary. His (relative) sensibility has him screwed.

Chris Christie

What’s changed

Nothing—Christie is still very much damaged goods, and he’s just burning money at this point. Which is to say, he’s just being Christie.

What to expect

A few spats with Rand Paul, a few attacks on Trump, and if there’s any good left in this world, a lot of very, very dumb and patently false soundbites for us to drown our sorrows in.

Can he win?

No, but bless him for trying.

Carly Fiorina

What’s changed

Carly was the (Fox-assisted) “winner” of Fox’s loser’s debate, so CNN screwed with the rules to get her into this prime time debate, helping her advance the narrative that her campaign is surging. (She is polling in the single digits.)

What to expect

While Carly stock is, sort of, if you squint, beginning to rise, she hasn’t actually said anything that crazy yet. If she wants a chance for a top slot, she needs to up her game. Something racist about immigrants should do.

Can she win?

She failed her Senate bid and most see her stint as CEO of HP as a failure, too. And more damning than any of that: Carly Fiorina is the proud owner of a vagina. So, nah.

Contact the author at ashley@gawker.com. Images via AP. Photos by Getty.