When Matt Drudge saw the Zogby poll that put McCain up a point last night, he let out a squeal of glee. "A story I can control!" he shrieked, probably still in his The Crow Halloween costume and makeup. McCain is within the margin of error in one Zogby poll, that much is true. But on the same morning where Drudge tries to sell a McCain victory, respected National Journal Charlie Cook says that the Republican candidate can't win without divine intervention. We have to ask: could Obama really be in trouble?Drudge has to tell his story, and in this case it's that McCain slipped above Obama in what basically amounted to an afternoon and a morning of polling. As of this writing, Drudge's "reporting" consisted of this quoting this John Zogby exercise in hyperbole:

He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

The first problem with Drudge's favorite storyline is that national tracking polls don't decide presidential elections, state polls do. And every electoral college projection has shown Obama's margin to be far larger in actuality than the popular vote might make it appear. Obama holds serious leads in many swing states, and is even pumping some of his ample funds into Arizona. The most pertinent thing to remember, as Nate Silver notes, is that

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

Mostly, we just feel bad for McCain flacks like National Review's Kathryn Jean Lopez, for whom the prospect of an Obama victory will probably lead to daily cry sessions and repeated copulation with a poster of Ronald Reagan.