If you're like us, you used to blame your poor Oscar-pool showing on those short films that never arrived in theaters before awards night. For better or worse, that excuse is officially over.

The 10 nominees for Best Live-Action and Animated Short Film open theatrically today for your convenience and, if you're the gambling type, prognosticating pleasure. We got a look at them this week, arriving at these early odds that are subject to change in the unlikely event that the cast of Manon on the Asphalt is photographed in a compromising, slanty-eyed position:

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

· Manon on the Asphalt: A classic case case of won't-win-but-should. The French ensemble short opens with the title character struck by a car, then riffing on pals, family and lovers as she drifts in and out of consciousness, maybe even to her death. Hang in there through the bourgeois, Babel-meets-Friends contrivances (swimming instructors and puppeteers apparently live very well in Paris), and Manon settles into a bittersweet, moving reminder to hold tight to those you love. And call your mother! Like, now. Alas, it's going up against a Holocaust movie. ODDS OF WINNING: 5 to 1

· New Boy: An adaptation of Roddy Doyle's story about a young African boy facing bullying, shyness and other torment on his first day at an Irish school. All this after watching his father get gunned down in front of him! Such adversity! Will he make it through? It's nominated for an Oscar, isn't it? ODDS OF WINNING: 10 to 1

· On the Line: A maudlin romantic tragedy about a Swiss store-cop who obsesses over a bookseller at work. Cue surveillance, stalking and the shattering coincidence that brings them together. Well-acted and directed but utterly implausible, which works for Best Picture nominees but won't cut it here. Sorry! ODDS OF WINNING: 20 to 1

· The Pig: Just your average, whimsical tale of an aging Dane whose rectal cancer scare turns into a valuable cross-cultural learning experience with his Muslim hospital roommate. Which sounds worse than it actually is, but ultimately won't score the conceptual points needed to claim the prize. ODDS OF WINNING: 100 to 1

· Toyland: A woman goes hunting for her missing son in WWII Germany, afraid that her impromptu appellation for concentration camps — "Toyland" — provoked him to tag along that morning with the doomed Jews next door. But it's not what you think! Grossly exploitive and crassly hopeful, Toyland is as close to an Oscar-bait recipe as you'll find this side of Schindler's List. On the bright side, it's only a 10th as long. ODDS OF WINNING: 2 to 3

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

· Lavatory Lovestory: A lonely Russian bathroom attendant works to unravel the secret of which mystery urinator is leaving her flowers. Is it just another one of her daydreams? Riveting, sweet and deceptively simple, we could see an upset. But the smart money isn't here. ODDS OF WINNING: 15 to 1

· La Maison en Petits Cubes: Everyone seems to worship Kunito Kato's film, which situates an old man and his home in the middle of continually rising waters. A retrieval expedition becomes necessary as he builds the home skyward brick-by-brick, launching the man diving in the deep, previously uncharted Clumsy Metaphor Sea. Boredom has never been prettier, but if it beats Pixar's Presto, it'll be to balance out WALL-E's feature win, not necessarily for its merit. ODDS OF WINNING: 5 to 1

· Oktapodi: A determined octopus chases its sweetheart down after her purchase from a seafood store. Cute if slightly crude, and thankfully short. We have no idea how it got nominated against these other four. ODDS OF WINNING: 500 to 1

· Presto: Pixar (and WALL-E in particular) is kind of a divisive subject around Defamer HQ. But at this desk, anyway, Presto is its superior film of 2008 — the wordless 10-minute battle of wits between a hungry rabbit and the magician withholding his carrot. That's it. No sweeping ecological themes, no fat people, no robot love. Just old-fashioned, rollicking cartoon violence upgraded for the 21st century. If WALL-E costs Presto a statuette, it'll have hell to pay around here Monday morning. ODDS OF WINNING: 3 to 1

· This Way Up: A darker-than-dark comic journey of father-son morticians delivering a casket to its final resting place, too Burton-esque for younger voters and too bleak for older voters. ODDS OF WINNING: 25 to 1