Actor Matt Damon has leapt rather unwisely into the political fray. The Bourne Identity star-usually more discreet about his political opinions than hometown friend Ben Affleck-says Sarah Palin's rise is "like a really bad Disney movie." Let's put that provocative comparison to one side and examine the source of the Hollywood star's alarm. "Do the actuary tables and there's a one out of three chance, if not more, that McCain doesn't survive his first term and it'll be President Palin," says Damon. The actor played a math savant in Oscar-winning movie Good Will Hunting-but those skills aren't in evidence here. A cursory glance at the statistics shows that a 72-year-old male has a 3.3% chance of dying within the year-and a relatively modest 15% likelihood he won't last the four years of a presidential term. So, Matt Damon: about half right. Hey, that's not bad for a Hollywood actor! (After the jump, a video of the interview, which won't convert any waverers.)