Whoops, It's Time to Leave Los Angeles (Maybe)
Los Angeles offers many things. Sun. Sand. Millions of horrible people. Cocaine. Unfortunately, all current and near-future residents of America’s entertainment capital may soon have their lives put in danger by an almost certain earthquake. Or not!
Yesterday, the AP reported on a study conducted by “NASA and university researchers” that argues there is a 99.9% chance of an earthquake fucking L.A. up in the next three years:
There is a 99.9 percent chance of a magnitude-5 or greater earthquake striking within three years in the greater Los Angeles area, where a similar sized temblor caused more than $12 million in damage last year, according to a study by NASA and university researchers.
The study released Tuesday was based on Global Positioning System and airborne radar measurements of how the Earth’s crust was deformed by the magnitude-5.1 quake on March 28, 2014, in La Habra, about 20 miles southeast of downtown Los Angeles. The damage included broken water mains and cracked pavement.
Sounds bad. But quickly, a competing group released a statement doubting that Los Angeles is definitely going to get destroyed by an earthquake. Via the Los Angeles Times:
The U.S. Geological Survey is raising serious doubts about a recent study that calculates a 99.9% chance of a large earthquake in the Los Angeles area in the next three years.
The USGS took the rare step of issuing a statement raising questions about the study, recently published in the journal Earth and Space Science and coauthored by a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.
“I have serious doubts that the conclusions of the paper are supported by the analysis that’s presented there,” Robert Graves, a USGS seismologist and Southern California coordinator for earthquake hazards, said in an interview Wednesday. The study lists Graves as a consultant who helped with calculations for the study, but Graves says he has deep concerns about the study.
Graves continued:
“It does not seem like a reasonable number,” Graves said. “There’s no information from that paper that that number can be substantiated.
“The 99.9% number — I don’t know the method that was used to derive that. But basically, that’s saying that’s going to happen. And that level of certainty, to my knowledge, is just not attainable. We can never be that certain.”
Science, huh? Anyway, see you guys in Austin.
[images via Getty]
