Jacob Fischler at BuzzFeed reports that in the autumn of 2012, a single (unknown) millionaire staked, and lost, “at least $4 million” on Mitt Romney trouncing Barack Obama on November 6. Fischler cites a working paper by Microsoft’s David Rothschild and Columbia’s Rajiv Sethi, who studied trading patterns on the now-illegal InTrade.com, which allowed armchair speculators to bet on almost anything.

Once bloggers picked up on the fact that Intrade had gotten rather bullish on Obamacare, the price plummeted to 35. Today it's back up in the 60s. Curious!

The early gambling line on the Oscars is tracking the irrestiable storyline of dueling exes James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow. Intrade has Avatar as the favorite for Best Picture, followed closely by The Hurt Locker, with no one else mattering.

God, remember when this seemed like another tossup? All the "insiders" say this one's Obama's. Smart Republicans are looking for good 2012 candidates. Over at InTrade, traders are betting heavily on an Obama victory. As you can see, after an odd September dip (one that wasn't relfected in other market prediction sites), Obama's up to nearly 74. [InTrade]