The Rain Explains Why Fewer People Are Slain
The New York Times conducts its own analysis and concludes that, in New York City at least, more rainy days means fewer homicides. However, given the ongoing depressing Year Without a Summer around these parts, there's no discussion of suicides.
From the Times:
[A]n analysis by The New York Times of rainfall and homicides for the last six years shows that when it rains substantially in the summertime, there are fewer homicides.
When there was no precipitation, there was an average 17 homicides every 10 days. But when there was an inch or more of rain, the average dropped to 14.
The pattern is more pronounced if you only look at Saturdays in the summer—normally a high-volume day for homicides. Rainy summer Saturdays yielded an average 25 percent fewer murders than dry ones.
It's sort of an obvious point: Rainy days mean fewer people out on the streets, and fewer chances for encounters that could turn violent. The weather obviously doesn't affect rates of domestic homicide, and law enforcement sources told the Times that drug deals and similar potentially violent interactions continue unabated through downpours. But rain is enough of a factor in—at least temporarily—reducing the homicide rate that NYPD detectives like to say "the best cop in the world is on duty tonight" during rainstorms.
Researchers told the paper that rain doesn't have the same effect nationwide as it does in New York City, perhaps because people here don't have yards to hang out in and are more likely to be out, about, and murdering on sunny days. The downside of the phenomenon is that the murders that are committed on rainy days tend to be harder to solve—evidence gets washed away, and potential witnesses run off to dry places.
So take heart, New Yorkers. The miserable weather you've been suffering through since May has saved lives. Will it be worth the price when—if—the sun ever returns? Yes!
No word yet on how crazy orange clouds affect street violence.
