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When insiders sell, most market watchers take it as a sign that the wheels are coming off. What to make, then, of Microsoft SVP Bob Muglia's latest stock move? Muglia, a stalwart cheerleader for Microsoft's Windows Vista, owns 6.7 million Microsoft options rendered worthless by the drop in its stock price. But he also has a sure way to profit from the slumping price. Last October, Muglia wrote a call option requiring him to sell $1.6 million worth of Microsoft shares, but only if the stock hit $32.50. The option expires on April 18; unless Microsoft shares rise dramatically in the next two weeks, Muglia's set to pocket whatever money he made selling the option. A wise move, except for the appearance of betting against his employer.