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As we hunt for the next A-list Microsoft blogger after Robert Scoble's departure, keep in mind some odds from the ever-clever blog Make You Go Hmm. Here's blogger TDavid's handicapping, with his clever analysis stripped out and my breezy commentary subbed in.

  • The 3,000+ existing Microsoft Bloggers (pictured): 2 to 1. Happy spin: It takes thousands to replace Scoble. Cynical spin: Finally, someone disproves "The Wisdom of the Crowds."
  • Niall Kennedy: 3 to 1 Well duh.
  • Mini-Microsoft: 10 to 1 Oh sure, Ballmer will lure out this critical anonyblogger — to throw a chair at him.
  • Dare Obasanjo: 20 to 1 Why isn't this Microsoft blogger already huge? Because actually being a developer keeps him too busy to pontificate.
  • Chris Pirillo: 25 to 1 Oh no way. Chris has already graduated from blogebrity to confebrity, thanks to his kick-ass Gnomedex conference.

Ray Ozzie: 50 to 1 Hasn't posted since April? Now that's a blogger to rally behind.

  • Dave Winer: 100 to 1 Even better, since Dave promised to stop blogging this year.
  • Steve Ballmer: 250 to 1 Only if it's a podcast. "Linkers! Linkers! Linkers!"
  • Bill Gates: 1000 to 1 Valleywag handicaps him at 2 to 1 — this is the perfect way to truly retire.

What, no odds for RoboScoble?

The Scoblelizer Replacement pool odds [Make You Go Hmm]