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Because the summer box office season is now officially over—this time we really mean it!—and the studios are opening three mediocre movies just for the the hell of it, projections are going to be a crapshoot. In the past, we've urged you to take these predictions to the bank; today, we recommend you try to sell them to the slow kid in front of the 7-11 who spends his day smashing a soda can with a jagged rock.

1. Without A Paddle — $16 million
Bad buzz hangs around this movie like the stink of failure on Defamer at a family reunion, but something's got to come in first. And the Up Shit Creek Gang might just pull it off.

2. Open Water — $14 million
Calling this the Blair Witch With Sharks Project might be unfairly reductive and dismissive. This movie wishes it were Blair Witch, which made approximately fifteen gabilliony dollars before everyone realized that it wasn't really that good.

3. The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement — $13 million
3.(tie) The Exorcist: The Beginning — $13 million
We're so completely baffled by what may unfold that we're calling for The Projectionist's first-ever (we think) tie. Yes, yes, this is really exciting, and we don't mean for this event to overshadow either of these movies' moment in the third-place sun. We should also throw in a request for Anne Hathaway to start boozing around Hollywood so we have an excuse to obsess over her.

5. Alien Vs. Predator — $12 million
This weekend's precipitous AVP drop should mend the profound philosophical wounds it inflicted with its opening first-place finish.